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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd