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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."